Your partner was very impressive and exciting in your earlier encounters. Now they are not as impressive. Your relationship is not as exciting as it used to be. What happened? Statistics can explain.
Regression towards the mean is the tendency of results that are extreme on first-time measurement, to move closer to the average when measured several times over a long period. It is unlikely that lightning keeps striking the same tree several times.
Imagine you were playing a football match and you scored two consecutive penalties. You may start thinking that you are good at taking penalties. But if you were to take a third, fourth and fifth penalty you are unlikely to score. Your probability of scoring a penalty moves from 1,at two penalties, to 0.4 at five penalties. This means you are a below average penalty taker. A true reflection of your football talent.
In other words, extreme scores tend to fall back to the average eventually. A footballer can score six goals in a single match but he cannot replicate that performance in every game. In a 2002 world cup qualification match between Australia and American Samoa, Archie Thompson scored 13 goals. But we all agree that he is not the best footballer in the world.
Ronaldo has an average of 0.73 goals per game while Messi has average of 0.80 goals per game. But Ronaldo has played more games than Messi. The GOAT debate is settled.
People who win the lottery become happy for some time and then a few years down the line they go back to their default level of happiness. We get thrilled for acquiring something new, a phone, a house, a car etc. But after sometime that excitement tapers down. We quickly adjust to our new circumstances and go back to our usual selves.
This is what happens in relationships, when we are dating, we present our best selves. We try to be more caring and well-mannered than we really are. We also amplify our partner’s good qualities and minimize their bad qualities. Based on the “high” scores, we delude ourselves that our relationship is special, that our partners are exceptional. We get married.
Then the rubber meets the road. The euphoria of novelty dies down a few years down the line. We crawl back to our home after wandering like the prodigal son. Our home is our natural tendencies, our typical emotions and behaviors to which we eventually revert to when the dust settles.
Like a soda that has been open for sometime, we lose our flavor. We start showing our meanness.
Life is life
Fabio