In 2006, Andriy Shevchenko was the best striker in Europe. His exploits at AC Milan and the champions league made him win the Ballon d’or. So, when Chelsea got him for a record-breaking transfer fee, it was expected that he would have a great impact at the club. Far from it. He was a complete flop. He only scored 9 goals in the premier league in his three years at Chelsea.
Sometimes we make the mistake of predicting the future based on the wrong track record.
A goat can observe the owner giving it food for three years and can assume that the owner loves and cares for it. Only to find itself converted to matumbo and nyama choma on Easter weekend.
Human beings, like all animals, have an inclination to use the easily observable information to make predictions. This is necessary for survival. The consequences of mistaking a stick for a snake are not as serious as the consequences of mistaking a snake for a stick.
Many of our choices are however rarely a matter of life and death. But still, we have a tendency to assume that just because someone is good at one thing, he is also good at something else. This is called the halo effect. When you are boarding a matatu, which person are you likely to sit next to, the attractive one or the not so attractive one?
Good looking people are usually the meanest. Apparently, you should not buy meat from a butchery with no flies.
An impressive political analyst may not even convince his wife to vote for him in village elder elections. Your favorite motivational speaker may not be able to motivate himself to get his act together and put his life in order. Talking is cheaper than walking.
We often confuse the bark for the bite. The winners of talent search contests such as Tusker Project fame are not musicians but are only “talented” in singing other people’s songs. Don’t believe the hype.
Having a PhD just means that one has gone through the education system to the highest level. Some people do well in interviews because they are good at doing interviews.
The thing is, sometimes what we sign up for is not what we get. Ask anyone who has been married for years.
If you were lost in a neighborhood and you saw a bunch of kids playing around the corner, which kid will you ask to give you directions? The tallest of course! But the tallest kid could also be the stupidest.
We have a proclivity to use the wrong heuristic in predicting people’s ability and behavior.
Still, would you trust a doctor who looks like a butcher to conduct surgery on your knee?
Life is life
Fabio