Gambler’s Fallacy

A man finds himself on a treasure hunt in a big house with many rooms. He believes that the treasure he greatly desires lies behind one of the doors.

He opens the first door; he finds the room is empty. Okay, he says, “maybe the next one has the treasure”. He opens the second door, it’s empty. He opens the third door, he finds nothing.

He starts to doubt if he will find the treasure he desperately seeks.
But he reminds himself that he cannot quit because he once read a quote that says “Quitters are never winners”. So, he keeps on the chase. He opens the fourth, fifth and sixth doors and still comes up empty.  

When he reaches for the seventh door, he says “surely this must be it. Number seven is my lucky number”. He opens door number seven, he finds nothing.

He grows desperate. He starts to panic and frantically opens the doors.  He keeps opening the doors, hoping and wishing that the next door is “the one”.

He reaches door number 457 and wonders if he is on a wild goose chase. He wonders if all the talk he’s heard about “trusting the process” was hot air.  

But he remembers that he has already opened 456 doors. He has already invested much in the process. Stopping at door 456 is not a good idea. What if he is one door away from hitting the jackpot?

So, he keeps going.  He keeps on the chase for the entirety of his life. And by the time he arrives at door 478994 he is tired, frustrated and dying.

He finally reaches out for door 478994. His hand trembles as he turns the knob. He closes his eyes as he enters the room and slowly opens them expecting to see the desired treasure.

There is nothing.  He breaths his last.

Hope. Is. Dangerous.

Life is life

Fabio