Many people take too much time analyzing and trying to logically choose a partner. Not knowing that they may as well toss a coin and settle the matter. There are only two outcomes of a marriage: live ‘happily” together or separate. Even if you spend twenty years deciding whether to marry someone will still end up happily together or separated. You can only delay the outcome.
The idea of tossing a coin to decide who to marry may sound repulsive. In 1968 European football championship, the semi final between Italy and Soviet Union was decided by a coin flip after extra time. Italy won and eventually became champions. Such an important game being decided by a flip of a coin obviously caused uproar. The coin toss was replaced by penalty kicks. However if you ask any serious football fan, they will tell you that when it comes to penalty kicks, the game can go either way. The chances of any team winning are 50-50. Just like the flip of a coin. Sometimes what we call thinking or logical decision making is as a good as a coin flip.
We delude ourselves that we are rational in choosing marriage partners. Ask anyone who is ‘happily” married about how they chose their spouse. They will sit you down, look at you with a serious face like a wise person and explain to you the “right” criteria for choosing a partner. You would think that their choice of a marriage partner was a work of genius. In reality it is just hindsight bias. They won’t admit that they just gambled and it paid off!
The rule of thumb for spouse selection should be; are you unsure whether to marry someone? Toss a coin. Heads you tie the knot. Tails you let her/him loose. Kesi baadaye. I am going out on a limb here. This may sound like bad advice. But this is serious, like divorce. Steven Levitt conducted a study among participants who were faced with life dilemmas like quitting a relationship. The participants were to make a decision based on a coin toss. The results of the study showed that the participants were happier after making a decision based a coin toss.
Other studies have shown that sometimes lay people, experts and computer models have similar accuracy in predicting future outcomes and did no better than the results of a coin flip. In short, no one knows. This is not farfetched. Fifty percent of marriages end up in divorce. Meaning that the chances of a marriage succeeding are 50-50. Like a coin toss.
Some people are just lucky while others are dealt a bad hand. So next time before thumping your chest on how well your relationship is doing. Admit that you were lucky. The coin flip could have gone either way!
Fabio